Showing posts with label technical analysis. Show all posts

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Managing Your Portfolio | Big Short Squeeze

Big Short Squeeze on Rumors | MR Investor Chart

The week started out badly on Monday as the S&P 500 sold down very close to our Sunday newsletter bounce forecast near 1260. It actually reached a low of 1266 so it didn’t quite get as low as we predicted but the market was technically way oversold and was ready to bounce up. There were far too many down days in May and the short sellers for the markets and the Euro currency had overstayed their time.

The big question was how the S&P 500 was going to act around the 200 and 250 SMAs which were very close to each other near 1283. Tuesday the market tested 1283 and closed at 1285. It was basically a pause day day but it had the shorts nervous. Then once the rumors of secret meetings between the US and Euro leaders hit Europe, along with some ECB rhetoric, the short squeeze kicked into action.

The rumors had nothing concrete or specific but the snap back up from being oversold and the auto-program technical buying and investor buying above the 200 SMA did the rest. It was a perfect environment to get a big technical bounce day. And as the day wore on, the Republican Governor blocked a pro-union recall vote which spurred on hopes of a Romney Republican boost for President. It was probably small but it could have added a bit to the rally.

It was a good tradeable rally for long swing traders as everything bounced across the board. But you need to put the one day move up in perspective. MR recommends using our MR Investor Chart (invaluable planning resource) to better help you navigate these news’ driven markets (see below). Note how the markets were on the brink of a major investor sell signal on Monday well below the 200 and 250 SMAs. The shakeout worked and the oversold bounce led to investor buys and auto-program buys today after getting above the 200 SMA. The subsequent short squeeze pushed the markets up much higher just underneath the 150 SMA level near 1,318 (2nd chart below).

Momentum Rider’s Key Investor Chart (Managing Your Portfolio vs. Moving Averages)

The S&P 500 closed today below its 20 and 150 SMA which are both near 1,318. Being below the 150 SMA on the S&P 500 is still bearish and it is also 46 points below the critical 50 SMA. Even a move back above 1325 is still in a caution area for investors with a recommended reduced equity exposure level (i.e. still below the 50 SMA)

The bulls will try to spin the Fed’s comments positively to push up towards the 50 SMA near 1360 and the bears will try to take the market back down to its 200 SMA at 1283 to erase today’s gains. The 20 SMA (1,318) can be a strong resistance trendline, especially when joined by another big moving average like the 150 SMA. It will be interesting trading in the next few days and into next week.

Investor Chart with Technical Analysis and Key Battle Levels:

Nothing fundamentally changed today except for a technical market bounce based on several rumors. Until details are provided by the Fed about QE3 or specific details are released about a European plan for their debt and banks, MR’s defensive and cautious position won’t change. For now, it was only one big short squeeze day from a very oversold condition that probably won’t have any legs. Only time will tell.

Investor Notes:

Gold and silver had strong bounces late last week and they may have higher to go in the short term. Oil is still looking for a bottom and investors can scale in on any more weakness a little at a time.

The caution alert for retirement accounts and investors is still present. Selling more equities to protect from more heavy selling is prudent at this time, especially if you can take advantage of selling at higher prices during a market bounce. Make sure to be ready to sell even more in case the Euro completely unravels and takes the markets down hard.

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Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

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This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C. Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.

© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Stock Market Caution Alert

Stock Market Update Caution Alert

Gold and silver bounced up today as we expected from being oversold and with some short covering. Hopefully they are putting in a bottom and base now. Natural gas sold off early but recovered and unleaded gasoline and WTI Crude Oil held steady. We are still looking for a bounce for gas and oil fairly soon as well.

As for the US markets, the DJIA was up almost 90 points in the futures last night and a good bounce seemed likely today. Unfortunately more scares of runs on European banks and poor US domestic data this morning gave the short sellers ammunition. The very oversold markets continued to move towards the support target we expected near 1,300 on the S&P 500 – just much faster than anticipated.

The problem now is that there are very few buyers willing to step in front of the cascade down. It has the earmarks of some panic selling from funds to avoid the big 6 week stock market losses that we had the last 2 years (May 1 to June 16).

The only positive as we indicated last night is that our oversold indicators are hitting the buy triggers that could start a short squeeze back up starting tomorrow. But the weekend is always dangerous to hold longs with this negative cycle in place.

Facebook’s IPO could help trigger some upside stock market momentum tomorrow but our S&P 500 forecast points to a move lower to the 1,285 to 1,275 area (1,279 is the 200 SMA and next strong support). That would complete the Head and Shoulders Pattern retrace that we have been showing on charts for several weeks. It may happen next week without any good European news – like guaranteed deposits in banks, etc.

We wish we had better news but the Eurozone is unraveling and there doesn’t seem to be any answer close at hand. It could get much worse from here so scaling back even more on your equity exposure on any bounce is recommended. Cash is always a good position until more certainty comes in.

STOCK MARKET CAUTION IS WARRANTED FOR NOW!

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Head and Shoulders Pattern | May Selling

Another Technical Analysis Lesson – Head and Shoulders Pattern

Note: Reprinted from April 25, 2012 - Wouldn't this be useful to know for your trading and investing? This forecast was dead on the money.

MR’s forecast of more market chop around the 50 SMA this week has played out so far. The criss-cross of the 50 SMA happened for the 10^th time today on the S&P 500 in 12 days. Our bias was bearish going into the week on Sunday night and Monday was down 185 Dow points near its low. Since then, it did bounce up off that low and actually finished back above its 20 and 50 SMA today after Apple’s blowout surprise earnings. And yes, the heavy selling in Apple Inc. going into earnings clearly had the analysts and many short sellers caught on the wrong side.

At this point, the three major US markets were able to recapture their key 50 SMAs as well as their most important breakout levels from the last 30 days. COMP at 3,029 (>3,000); S&P 500 at 1,390 (> 1,375); and DJIA at 13,090 (>13,000). However, the markets were on the brink of a big selloff and technical breakdown on Monday (see later chart). The only savior was Apple’s blowout earnings today which caused yet another short squeeze up for the markets.

The chart from Sunday’s newsletter is still valid even after today’s strong close at 1390.

Bullish Above 1400 and Bearish Below 1370

Technical Analysis – May Selling Could Be Coming Again with a Head and Shoulders Breakdown

The markets were on the brink of a big technical breakdown from a Head and Shoulder’s pattern (see graph below from Monday) but they survived with Apple’s help. We have outlined this pattern numerous times before and recently showed a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that could be forming in gold and silver (Technical Analysis | Gold and Silver).

Taking a look at the graph below, the neckline was briefly breached on Monday but the market was able to recover back above it. If the neckline is eventually breached with volume and momentum, the lower target is a 6% drop down to 1283 on the S&P 500 (8% from here). The neckline is around the 1368 to 1371 level now.

A Confirmed Neckline Breakdown Is Probable for May

The reason for our bearish bias going into May has been made clear before in our recent newsletters. A breakdown could repeat again in May based on the last 2 years’ history in 2010 and 2011 as the charts show below. Here are the charts from the last 2 years for the 6 week period from late April to the middle part of June.

Big Selling in May and Early June 2010 (15% Loss)

Big Selling in May and Early June 2011 (8% Loss)

The institutions have been burned badly the last two years in May and will surely protect this time around on any hint that a downtrend is starting again. In fact, had Apple missed its earnings last night, there is no doubt the heavy selling would already be in full swing going into May.

The bottom line is that we continue to stress caution and recommend fewer equities here. There is an increased downside risk based on recent past history and the Head and Shoulders pattern shown above.

For now we will wait to post more of our HOT Stocks in the momentum stock investor series. For the power stock picks tonight, MR is going to select 10 shorts that could fall quickly if selling kicks in again and into May as history would predict.

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_________________________________________________________

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

Friday, March 16, 2012

Technical Analysis | Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis

In this gold and silver investment blog, Momentum Rider will be demonstrating a technical analysis pattern called an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. It is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs after a strong downtrend and it can produce a very powerful uptrend. Normally, the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is much smaller in time duration and in amplitude than the one we will be illustrating in gold and silver. But, as we explained in a previous blog on gold and silver, this pattern is part of a very large consolidation phase for the precious metals (see Gold and Silver To Shine Brightly in 2012). The gold and silver Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns will have significant upside energy because of their large size if they finally break out above their necklines. This will be explained in more depth later in the article.

First, it is worth spending some time telling you more information about what this pattern is. In addition, we will be using some specific examples that should prove useful for your understanding. The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is a chart pattern used in technical analysis that predicts the strong reversal of a downtrend. The Inverse H&S pattern is broken down into three smaller parts. Note that you may also see this pattern named an “Inverted Head and Shoulders” or a “Head and Shoulders Bottom”.

The first part of the pattern is where the price falls to a low or trough from a downtrend and then rises back up a percentage of the previous downtrend (left shoulder). The second part consists of a fall to a lower price than the first trough low and then another rise back up (head). The third part of the pattern is a fall from the uptrend from part 2 that does not go as low as the second trough or the head (right shoulder). The right shoulder low frequently doesn’t get as low as the left shoulder low. Finally, the rise from the third trough low takes it to a breakout line connecting the highs from the left shoulder and right shoulder (neckline). Typically the average volume in the shoulders is lower than average volume in the head phase. Two chart examples are shown below:

Example 1: Breakout Above the Neckline On Volume (Safer Entry With Pattern Confirmation)

There are two recommended ways to take advantage of the powerful Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. The first is to identify the pattern early and to buy in the trough of the right shoulder. The second way is to wait for a high volume breakout of the neckline. Playing the breakout is generally a safer entry with full confirmation of the pattern. Buying in the right shoulder trough has more risk but it can be more profitable because of the lower price entry.

The chart below is an example of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that Momentum Rider identified for subscribers in the middle of 2010. Obviously, it was very successful and profitable for us. It was part of a bottoming process for the S&P 500 similar to what gold and silver looks like right now. Note that this pattern is fairly deep and long in duration at about 4.5 months. That large depth and long duration helped to provide a very powerful move up that followed the breakout from the neckline.

Example 2: Breakout Above the Neckline a With Strong Run Up in 2010 for the S&P 500

Technical Analysis 2

Technical Analysis Charts – Consolidation and Energy Buildup Phase:

Momentum Rider has written numerous recent blogs supporting much higher prices for gold and silver in 2012 and for several years to come. In fact, we already explained the concept of consolidation phases and energy storage and buildup for bigger moves. Here is a quick snapshot of those previously published charts from our March 8th blog. This concept is important to understand because it supports our higher risk recommendation of accumulating in the right shoulder price areas without waiting for the neckline breakout on high volume.

Buying gold and silver right now does add risk to the trade because the right shoulder trough could breakdown. If the right shoulder price goes below the head’s low price, then the pattern is negated and the bigger move up in silver and gold may not happen as we anticipate.

Silver Energy Buildup Phase (Technical Analysis):

Gold Energy Buildup Phase (Technical Analysis):

Technical Analysis Charts – Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern

Because of our fundamental and macro event premise that gold and silver will go higher in 2012 and for years to come, Momentum Rider believes that there is a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming in both gold and silver. Furthermore, for reasons that we discussed above and in our previous blogs on this subject, MR is recommending that you start accumulating gold and silver during this choppy period of consolidation in the right shoulder patterns right now.

Refer to the charts below for the recommended accumulation price range for your gold and silver buys. Also, you can add to your long positions after a breakout above the necklines as noted on the charts.

For gold, the accumulation range is between $1,585 and $1,740 with a neckline breakout level of $1,775.

For silver the accumulation range is between $29 and $34 with a neckline breakout level of $36.

MR recommends that you start accumulating gold and silver in the form of ETFs, mining stocks, coins, jewelry, or even bars if you have a good way of buying and storing the actual metal. But please be careful with any company you buy gold and silver from and those companies that claim they will store it for you.

Another parabolic move in silver and gold prices similar to what happened in 2010 and 2011 is very probable and it could be even bigger this time around. Using technical analysis studies and past experiences with large Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns in markets, the next moves up in gold and silver could start in April and the duration and size of the moves could be substantial.

The simplest and probably the safest method to accumulate gold and silver is to buy the ETFs. The Silver ETFs MR likes are SLV or SIVR and the Gold ETFs are GLD or IAU. Start buying in small amounts right now and on any pullbacks before the big momentum move really kicks in. Watch for Momentum Rider’s frequent updates on gold and silver prices in blogs and in the MR Power Stock Newsletters.

Keep learning more about technical analysis and look out for this very powerful Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in the future. Take advantage of this investment opportunity in gold and silver as it could end up being one of the best things you could do for your retirement account in 2012.

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Monday, March 12, 2012

Decision Time Again for Stock Markets

Decision Time Again at Old Highs

This blog will focus on the high retest in the stock markets and also starts a new investor series on value commodity stocks.The stock markets suffered their first big loss of the year last week and it did break the short term trendlines – the 20 SMAs. However, to the bulls’ credit, they fought back hard on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to recover from that big loss. The moving average lesson still is a very good one to keep handy for investors as the IWM pullback followed it in textbook fashion. Furthermore, most stocks and commodities follow the same pattern as well. Knowing and applying its principles has personally made and saved me lots of money. And, the DJIA could still follow that moving average pattern.

It was fairly simple to look back on what caused the recovery bounce in the markets. The dip buyers stepped back in, Apple continued to hold steady (AAPL), a final last second Greek bond agreement was signed, some more positive US data was released, and probably a small short squeeze occurred to overcome the selling pressure.

So the stock markets are back to where they started last week for the most part.except for the DJIA which failed to close back above its 20 SMA on Friday. We added a few select positions back on Thursday and Friday in our portfolios in case a topside breakout occurs above the key levels this week (1,375, 13,000, and 3,000). But we left roughly 20% open stock positions in case of a pullback. The 50 SMAs are still very strong magnets if more heavy selling occurs this week.

Fundamentally speaking, the very low interest rate money (“free money”) available to institutions with a systemic risk that has been significantly improved in Europe seems to keep plenty of buying available. With that backdrop in place and without any Iranian crisis, it continues to be a bullish environment for the rest of March until proven otherwise.

The large divergence shown in last week’s DJ Transports and Russell 2000 Indexes charts remains but their move up with a small move down by the Major US Indexes would close that gap.

Momentum Rider is recommending a 10% to 20% reduction in equities on selling from here because the trendline SELL SIGNAL triggered last week is still in place. The key levels need to be taken out and held above for 2 consecutive days to negate it. (1,375, 13,000, and 3,000)

Using the Power Stocks Table:
(1) Risk: Conservative (Cons); Moderate (Mod); Aggressive (Aggr); Speculative (Spec)
(2) Stop: Typically use a 3 to 4% closing stop below the entry price
(3) Trailing Stops: Use the 10 EMA (Swing) or 20 SMA (Short Term Trader) for protecting gains once above it; SMA = Daily Simple Moving Avg; EMA = Daily Exponential Moving Avg.

Commodity and Commodity Related Value Stocks:

Many commodity stocks in materials, energy, and agriculture and related stocks in railroads and shipping are still at some very attractive valuations. The statistics so far coming out of the US in 2012 are much better across the board. China’s growth is slowing but it is still close to 8%, and the reports out of Europe are only indicating a mild recession.And, because oil and some refined products are going up in price, many of the energy stocks should do better going forward with earnings. So this week starts an investor series on value stocks in these sectors.

Investor Notes:

As promised, MR wrote 3 very important investor blogs on gold and silver over the weekend which everyone should read. There are still several more blogs planned this week on gold and silver that include our latest mining stock recommendations. Click the links below to read the new blogs.

Gold and Silver To Shine Brightly in 2012

World Macro Trends Driving Gold and Silver Prices Higher

Gold and Silver Game Changers

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Gold and Silver To Shine Brightly in 2012

Technical Analysis | Gold and Silver Price Charts

Silver and gold prices and gold stocks and silver stocks are ready for a new uptrend. The gold and silver prices both broke out of their downtrends in late January and the breakout is still holding. A test of the trendline is not uncommon and it gives investors another opportunity to buy gold and silver and gold and silver stocks at good prices.

Momentum Rider has detailed numerous times the case for rising gold and silver prices in the future. We will list many of these reasons again in the second blog. The case for gold and silver prices rising sharply in the last six months of 2012 can also be made and this will be covered in a third blog. Finally, the last blog in this series will be provide a review of our top gold stocks and silver stocks that can still be purchased at good valuations.

This article will look at technical analysis reasons for more upside pressure in precious metals for 2012. Momentum Rider first covered the recent breakout of gold and silver back in our Jan. 29 blog. The prices did continue to move up in February but hit a pullback several weeks ago when people misread Bernanke’s comments to mean that the chance of a QE3 is very remote. Bernanke gave comments earlier this week to suggest that it is not off the table. Therefore, this pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity in our opinion.

As the charts show below, both gold and silver prices skyrocketed from August 2010 and well into 2011. Silver prices went from $17.00 in August 2010 to $50.00 in late April 2011. That is almost a full 200% gain in just 8 months. In addition, silver went from $33.50 on March 17 to $50.00 on April 25 of last year. The gain for that period was almost 50% in just 33 trading days. April could be another good month for silver in 2012.

And for proof that Momentum Rider has a track record of market timing in silver and gold, you can read our blog on the last big “breakout call” written on August 24, 2010. It was literally only a day before the 200% move up in silver started. (click here to read). That doesn’t mean that this call is to the day or even week but it could happen soon.

As for gold prices, they went up strongly as well. Obviously silver has a much higher beta than gold so the percentages were not as much on the upside but they also didn’t fall as much as silver either. Gold started at a price of $1,155 on July 28, 2010 and went up to a high of $1,916 on August 23, 2011. That is a gain of 66% in about 13 months. And, although not as parabolic a move as silver relatively speaking, it is still a tremendous move for gold.

Technical Analysis and “Energy Systems” – Releasing Energy and Recharging

At this point, we need to briefly discuss stock market energy systems. Our Momentum Rider Stock Trading System is based on using energy system principles in the stock market. Whenever a strong momentum price move occurs like a parabolic move, the energy system’s fuel is completely spent by the end and it needs time to recharge. Think of it as a battery or fuel cell. The faster and larger the move, the longer the consolidation and energy recharge phase takes. So for silver, it went up very high and very fast so its consolidation phase is much larger in amplitude and longer in time than gold.

Both the “silver energy system” and the “gold energy system” are almost fully recharged technically speaking right now and they are ready for another strong price move up. And based on energy and momentum storage principles, the bigger in amplitude and longer the consolidation or recharging phase is, the higher and more explosive the breakout move will be.

Silver has been recharging for almost 12 months with a 40% amplitude swing. That is a very big descending triangle formation for silver as shown below. Ideally, the breakout occurs well before the apex in a bullish case and that is what happened in late January. Silver prices have crept up out of the triangle but they still need to pierce and hold the $37 price with volume to get momentum going. But as an investor, the current consoldiation is a good time to scale in before a potentially big move gets away from you.

The MR recommended silver price accumulation levels are between $28 and $37. Our conservative projected technical target is above $60 in the next 12 months or sooner. And as MR will cover in the next two blogs, that move up could even be in the next six months and much higher. The next move could be just as strong or stronger than the 200% move in 2010 and into 2011. The $60 price projection is nullified if the silver price breaks down below $28 in the near term.

Silver Energy System Buildup for Next Big Move Up:

The same energy system recharging has been going on with gold. Its recharging period is shorter in duration at 7 months with a 22% amplitude but its move will also be a large one when it starts its next leg up. The MR recommended gold price accumulation levels are between $1,625 and $1,750. The conservative price target for gold in the next 12 months is over $2,100. And, again, it could be much higher if the short squeeze and momentum forces we will discuss in the next few blogs come to pass. The gold price should not drop below $1,550 or the up move is in jeopardy.

Gold Energy System Buildup for Next Move Up:

Based on technical analysis and our Momentum Rider “energy system’s” work, we are predicting that gold and silver prices will see big moves up later in 2012. Our best guess is that it could start fairly soon based on the move that started in mid-March of 2011 last year. It will probably accelerate its move up in the late Spring and early Summer so it is not too early to start scaling into silver and gold on pullbacks. Today’s prices of $1,690 gold and $33.50 silver are good prices to start your scale-in buying. If the prices drop several percent, then pick some more up on each pullback.

Silver and gold are going to be excellent investments for both the short term and long term based on our technical and macro study work. But silver and gold are very volatile and the trading entries and exits need to be timed properly to maximize your profits and avoid big losses. Be patient with this development and MR will do our best to keep you on top of every big change through our newsletters and blogs. Start out with a small investment until the momentum move up is proven out and started.

To get our weekly TOP stock and ETF picks and detailed market commentary automatically sent to your email, enter your name and email address in the form below.

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Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Investors can take advantage of our best trader services in our premium Gold Trader Membership. Get access to the top Momentum Rider trader portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Trader Membership”…get more info

_________________________________________________________

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

_______________________________________________________________