Showing posts with label investor. Show all posts

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Managing Your Portfolio | Big Short Squeeze

Big Short Squeeze on Rumors | MR Investor Chart

The week started out badly on Monday as the S&P 500 sold down very close to our Sunday newsletter bounce forecast near 1260. It actually reached a low of 1266 so it didn’t quite get as low as we predicted but the market was technically way oversold and was ready to bounce up. There were far too many down days in May and the short sellers for the markets and the Euro currency had overstayed their time.

The big question was how the S&P 500 was going to act around the 200 and 250 SMAs which were very close to each other near 1283. Tuesday the market tested 1283 and closed at 1285. It was basically a pause day day but it had the shorts nervous. Then once the rumors of secret meetings between the US and Euro leaders hit Europe, along with some ECB rhetoric, the short squeeze kicked into action.

The rumors had nothing concrete or specific but the snap back up from being oversold and the auto-program technical buying and investor buying above the 200 SMA did the rest. It was a perfect environment to get a big technical bounce day. And as the day wore on, the Republican Governor blocked a pro-union recall vote which spurred on hopes of a Romney Republican boost for President. It was probably small but it could have added a bit to the rally.

It was a good tradeable rally for long swing traders as everything bounced across the board. But you need to put the one day move up in perspective. MR recommends using our MR Investor Chart (invaluable planning resource) to better help you navigate these news’ driven markets (see below). Note how the markets were on the brink of a major investor sell signal on Monday well below the 200 and 250 SMAs. The shakeout worked and the oversold bounce led to investor buys and auto-program buys today after getting above the 200 SMA. The subsequent short squeeze pushed the markets up much higher just underneath the 150 SMA level near 1,318 (2nd chart below).

Momentum Rider’s Key Investor Chart (Managing Your Portfolio vs. Moving Averages)

The S&P 500 closed today below its 20 and 150 SMA which are both near 1,318. Being below the 150 SMA on the S&P 500 is still bearish and it is also 46 points below the critical 50 SMA. Even a move back above 1325 is still in a caution area for investors with a recommended reduced equity exposure level (i.e. still below the 50 SMA)

The bulls will try to spin the Fed’s comments positively to push up towards the 50 SMA near 1360 and the bears will try to take the market back down to its 200 SMA at 1283 to erase today’s gains. The 20 SMA (1,318) can be a strong resistance trendline, especially when joined by another big moving average like the 150 SMA. It will be interesting trading in the next few days and into next week.

Investor Chart with Technical Analysis and Key Battle Levels:

Nothing fundamentally changed today except for a technical market bounce based on several rumors. Until details are provided by the Fed about QE3 or specific details are released about a European plan for their debt and banks, MR’s defensive and cautious position won’t change. For now, it was only one big short squeeze day from a very oversold condition that probably won’t have any legs. Only time will tell.

Investor Notes:

Gold and silver had strong bounces late last week and they may have higher to go in the short term. Oil is still looking for a bottom and investors can scale in on any more weakness a little at a time.

The caution alert for retirement accounts and investors is still present. Selling more equities to protect from more heavy selling is prudent at this time, especially if you can take advantage of selling at higher prices during a market bounce. Make sure to be ready to sell even more in case the Euro completely unravels and takes the markets down hard.

To get our weekly TOP stock and ETF picks and detailed market commentary automatically sent to your email, enter your name and email address in the form below.

Check out our FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Advertisement:

Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months.

Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Investor Membership”… get more info

_________________________________________________________

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C. Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.

© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Stock Market Battle At Old Highs Wages On

Battle at Old Highs Wages On

The battle at the old highs between bulls and bears goes on. It has been quite a struggle to stay above 13,000 on the DJIA, get to 3,000 on the COMP, and to hold 1,371 for the S&P 500. That is where the short sellers seem to be comfortable loading up and pushing the markets down.

The testimony today from Bernanke seemed to disappoint many and the markets sold off hard mid morning. The treasuries spiked and the precious metals were sold off in extremely heavy volume. Both silver and gold saw very big selling and price moves down after the dollar bounced. Some rumored that this big move down was caused by a very big “fat finger” 10 year Treasury buy mistake but that has not been confirmed.

MR believes that the better data and Bernanke’s slightly optimistic comments had everyone selling on a lower chance of QE3. The QE3 would hurt the dollar which helps gold and silver. Without the prospect of QE3 in the pipeline, the dollar could firm up and precious metals would drop. Today’s selling is an over-reaction in our opinion so read our comments at the end of this newsletter.

Nothing has changed from our previous technical analysis of the overbought markets. But a strong push back above the battleground levels mentioned above would cause short covering and another push even higher. Depending on the strength of any breakout, we can’t rule out 1400 or higher for the S&P 500 in March. But we also can’t rule out a 3 to 7% selloff as far and fast as the markets have climbed. So the 20 SMA trendlines are still the key to our next recommendations.

The markets are really in a wait and see mode right now for traders and investors. Let’s see what happens in the next few days trading and MR will reassess the situation in our MR Power Stock Newsletter on Sunday.

For now, MR posted several blogs on China on the website this week that have quite a few aggressive but attractive China stocks to choose from. These stocks are speculative in nature so use small amounts of investment money. However, many of them could be huge winners with some probably doubling or even tripling for the 3 year investor. The key will be to be very patient and to buy market and stock pullbacks.

Because of the numerous China stocks posted on some of our previous blogs, we are not including any power stock picks in this blog.

Investor Notes:

Keep an eye out for a new blog on gold and silver this weekend as this unexpected sell-off could be a good buying opportunity. Let’s see where the bottom settles. Both gold and silver may see a big push higher for the rest of 2012 due to some big changes in the commodities markets in China and Hong Kong. Stay tuned.

To get our weekly TOP stock and ETF picks and detailed market commentary automatically sent to your email, enter your name and email address in the form below.

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Advertisement:

_________________________________________________________

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

Monday, February 27, 2012

Best Stock Trading System

Match the Stock Trading System to Your Timeframe

Momentum Rider believes that there are many considerations one should carefully review before using a stock trading system and before ”trading” stocks or doing ”long term investing” in stocks. Unless a list of these issues is properly addressed, your trading and investing will not be profitable over time for most people. The primary issue when using most stock trading systems is being on the wrong side of the market. Learning how to read the market is the most important consideration before using any stock trading system. In fact, ideally, the stock trading system would include the market trend as one of its primary focuses for decision making.

The second most common problem for traders is a mismatch between the planned holding period of the trade and the stock trading system. Unless the stock trading system that you are using clearly defines time periods, the profitable trades will be greatly reduced.

Without a clearly defined timeframe and a successful trading that is MATCHED for that defined timeframe, the more difficult it is to consistently outperform the market or to know when to sell a position for a profit.
The Momentum Rider Stock Trading System is designed to be applicable to every type of trader or investor. And, as was discussed above, one must break down the trading universe into clearly defined timeframes for the stock trading system to be profitable. It is meaningless to talk about a strong trend unless you quantify the timeframe. The MR Stock Trading System is based on identifying trends and doing the correct match for our clients style and hold times.

Furthermore, just because you think a particular stock has a company with good fundamentals, it doesn’t mean that the stock’s technicals support a good long entry. Sometimes, strong fundamental stocks get into momentum downtrends that last for months and they should be avoided. Even with good fundamental stocks or good technical setups, the stock trading system needs to be matched with the appropriate trading timeframe for the best results. Otherwise, the entry can lose you money and the exit can either lose you money or cost you money by getting out too early.

Momentum Rider has defined the following trading and investing styles with their own specific holding times in order to optimize the Momentum Rider Stock Trading System results in their subscription services.

Momentum Rider Stock Trading System Timeframe Overview

1) Day Trader – trades in and out of momentum trades during the day and is flat at the end of the day - Hold Time – 1 day (Stock Trading System 1)
2) Swing Trader – typically trades mostly speculative and aggressive stocks, options, or ETF’s – Hold Time – 2 days to 2 weeks (Stock Trading System 2)
3) Short Term Trader – typically trades mostly aggressive to moderate stocks, options, or ETF’s – Hold Time – 2 weeks to 2 months (Stock Trading System 3)
4) Intermediate Term Trader – typically trades moderate to conservative stocks, options, or ETF’s – Hold Time – 2 months to 6 months (Stock Trading System 4)
5) Long Term Trader – typically trades conservative stocks and ETF’s – Hold Time – 6 months to 1 year (Trading System 5)
6) Income Investor – typically invests almost exclusively in different conservative income stocks and funds – Hold Time – > 6 months (Stock Trading System 6)
7) Traditional Investor – typically invests in very conservative stocks and ETF’s – Hold Time – 1 year to 2 years
8) Long Term Value Investor – typically invests in very conservative stocks and ETF’s – Typ. Hold Time – 3 years or more

Using the Momentum Rider Stock Trading System for Profits

While most people spend quite a bit of time and research trying to select stocks, it is often hard for them to know when the right time is to sell their stocks – especially for beginning traders or investors. The good news is that if you have chosen your stocks carefully as a long term investor, you typically won’t need to sell for several years, unless we are in a major bear market. For a trader, there could be numerous reasons for selling your stocks after only a few weeks or months. This is ultimately where the Momentum Rider Stock Trading System comes into play and helps optimize the profitability.

The bottom line is that if you truly want to know what stocks to buy, when to buy them, and when to sell them for profit, then you need to use a successful stock trading system, like Momentum Rider’s, that matches up the holding timeframe and stock selection with the proper trading methodology and techniques appropriate for that same period of time.

Please refer to the details on all of MR’s Products to better understand which trading and long term investing services are best suited for your style, goals, education, time dedication, and desired holding periods. Momentum Rider hopes you will join their success team and take advantage of their top performing stock trading system.

Top Dividend Stocks For Big Returns

Beating The Market with Top Dividend Stocks Investing

Stock investing in top dividend stocks which provide steady growth and earnings each year happens to be the ultimate goal for most traders. Investing in high quality and top dividend stocks has been an excellent way for traders throughout various times in stock market history to make good profits and income. Investing in a varied listing of top dividend stocks like Procter and Gamble (PG), Clorox (CLX), XOM (Exxon Mobil), 3M Company (MMM), and diverse other strong company stocks is a sound and proven approach.

The stock market is currently in a strong bull phase in early 2012 but it will get some pullbacks this year. Those pullbacks will present more buying opportunities to pick up some of the top dividend stocks at better prices. It will likely be uneven and choppy price action in the spring and summer with possible dips over 5% on a couple of occasions.

But we feel the worst has ended for now if Europe can continue to get strong action from the ECB and the top European leaders. During the future occasions of uncertainty and double dip fears, investing in steady, conservative top dividend stocks should be a good way to ride out any market dips.

The pullbacks in the top dividend stocks are typically less than the general stock market and the upside performance is generally better. In addition, the returns from the top dividend stocks give steady appreciation and a safe income stream. In fact, the dividends from the top dividend stocks will normally grow with quarterly or yearly dividend increases.

Use Market Timing To Boost Top Dividend Stocks’ Returns

The important concept for just about any investment is market timing. You have to understand stock market and business cycles. The investment entry and exits need to be timed correctly during these cycles. Clearly, the time in the early 1980’s to year 2000 was a strong growth cycle (secular bull market) for American companies, top dividend stocks, and also the stock exchanges generally. The last twelve years happen to be much more of an uneven and slow growth cycle that lots of people would say is a part of a bigger secular bear market. The verdict is still out on whether we are in the beginning of a bull market that will be good for top dividend stocks.

However, it should be stated that there have been good quality years for top dividend stocks during that twelve year period as well. For instance, from early 2003 to late 2007, top dividend stocks were inside a strong and steady recovery from the 2000-2002 collapse. And from March of 2009 until early 2010, the snap back recovery from the collapse of 2008 provided a strong recovery for many of the top dividend stocks.

Investing immediately after market collapses in high quality dividend stocks has been quite lucrative for investors. The first snap back is generally very good for the markets and the top dividend stocks. Then the market must digest and consolidate gains for several weeks or even months before moving up higher. Those consolidation phases are also good times to pick up top dividend stocks.

The very best strategy for investing in dividend stocks for your portfolio is to be consistent and steady with buys of the top dividend stocks, especially on market downturns, and also to always reinvest the dividends to buy more stock. This is how the top dividend stocks can produce very strong compound returns.

Momentum Rider is going to share with you a diversified dividend buy list that meets our strict criteria for the top dividend stocks. The portfolio is balanced across numerous industries and it has a strong multinational company bias.

Market Beating Top Dividend Stocks Portfolio:

Combinations of these top dividend stocks should do very well for anyone looking to make money from investing in the equities. Finally, go to our products section to look at numerous MR dividend subscription services and our top dividend stocks model portfolios.