Best Stock Trading System

Match the Stock Trading System to Your Timeframe

Momentum Rider believes that there are many considerations one should carefully review before using a stock trading system and before ”trading” stocks or doing ”long term investing” in stocks. Unless a list of these issues is properly addressed, your trading and investing will not be profitable over time for most people. The primary issue when using most stock trading systems is being on the wrong side of the market. Learning how to read the market is the most important consideration before using any stock trading system. In fact, ideally, the stock trading system would include the market trend as one of its primary focuses for decision making.

The second most common problem for traders is a mismatch between the planned holding period of the trade and the stock trading system. Unless the stock trading system that you are using clearly defines time periods, the profitable trades will be greatly reduced.

Without a clearly defined timeframe and a successful trading that is MATCHED for that defined timeframe, the more difficult it is to consistently outperform the market or to know when to sell a position for a profit.
The Momentum Rider Stock Trading System is designed to be applicable to every type of trader or investor. And, as was discussed above, one must break down the trading universe into clearly defined timeframes for the stock trading system to be profitable. It is meaningless to talk about a strong trend unless you quantify the timeframe. The MR Stock Trading System is based on identifying trends and doing the correct match for our clients style and hold times.

Furthermore, just because you think a particular stock has a company with good fundamentals, it doesn’t mean that the stock’s technicals support a good long entry. Sometimes, strong fundamental stocks get into momentum downtrends that last for months and they should be avoided. Even with good fundamental stocks or good technical setups, the stock trading system needs to be matched with the appropriate trading timeframe for the best results. Otherwise, the entry can lose you money and the exit can either lose you money or cost you money by getting out too early.

Momentum Rider has defined the following trading and investing styles with their own specific holding times in order to optimize the Momentum Rider Stock Trading System results in their subscription services.

Momentum Rider Stock Trading System Timeframe Overview

1) Day Trader – trades in and out of momentum trades during the day and is flat at the end of the day -  Hold Time – 1 day (Stock Trading System 1)
2) Swing Trader – typically trades mostly speculative and aggressive stocks, options, or ETF’s – Hold Time – 2 days to 2 weeks (Stock Trading System 2)
3) Short Term Trader – typically trades mostly aggressive to moderate stocks, options, or ETF’s – Hold Time – 2 weeks to 2 months (Stock Trading System 3)
4) Intermediate Term Trader – typically trades moderate to conservative stocks, options, or ETF’s – Hold Time – 2 months to 6 months (Stock Trading System 4)
5) Long Term Trader – typically trades conservative stocks and ETF’s – Hold Time – 6 months to 1 year (Trading System 5)
6) Income Investor – typically invests almost exclusively in different conservative income stocks and funds – Hold Time – > 6 months (Stock Trading System 6)
7) Traditional Investor – typically invests in very conservative stocks and ETF’s – Hold Time – 1 year to 2 years
8) Long Term Value Investor – typically invests in very conservative stocks and ETF’s – Typ. Hold Time – 3 years or more

Using the Momentum Rider Stock Trading System for Profits

While most people spend quite a bit of time and research trying to select stocks, it is often hard for them to know when the right time is to sell their stocks – especially for beginning traders or investors. The good news is that if you have chosen your stocks carefully as a long term investor, you typically won’t need to sell for several years, unless we are in a major bear market. For a trader, there could be numerous reasons for selling your stocks after only a few weeks or months. This is ultimately where the Momentum Rider Stock Trading System comes into play and helps optimize the profitability.

The bottom line is that if you truly want to know what stocks to buy, when to buy them, and when to sell them for profit, then you need to use a successful stock trading system, like Momentum Rider’s, that matches up the holding timeframe and stock selection with the proper trading methodology and techniques appropriate for that same period of time.

Please refer to the details on all of MR’s Products to better understand which trading and long term investing services are best suited for your style, goals, education, time dedication, and desired holding periods. Momentum Rider hopes you will join their success team and take advantage of their top performing stock trading system.

Top Dividend Stocks For Big Returns

Beating The Market with Top Dividend Stocks Investing

Stock investing in top dividend stocks which provide steady growth and earnings each year happens to be the ultimate goal for most traders. Investing in high quality and top dividend stocks has been an excellent way for traders throughout various times in stock market history to make good profits and income. Investing in a varied listing of top dividend stocks like Procter and Gamble (PG), Clorox (CLX), XOM (Exxon Mobil), 3M Company (MMM), and diverse other strong company stocks is a sound and proven approach.

The stock market is currently in a strong bull phase in early 2012 but it will get some pullbacks this year. Those pullbacks will present more buying opportunities to pick up some of the top dividend stocks at better prices. It will likely be uneven and choppy price action in the spring and summer with possible dips over 5% on a couple of occasions.

But we feel the worst has ended for now if Europe can continue to get strong action from the ECB and the top European leaders. During the future occasions of uncertainty and double dip fears, investing in steady, conservative top dividend stocks should be a good way to ride out any market dips.

The pullbacks in the top dividend stocks are typically less than the general stock market and the upside performance is generally better. In addition, the returns from the top dividend stocks give steady appreciation and a safe income stream. In fact, the dividends from the top dividend stocks will normally grow with quarterly or yearly dividend increases.

Use Market Timing To Boost Top Dividend Stocks’ Returns

The important concept for just about any investment is market timing. You have to understand stock market and business cycles. The investment entry and exits need to be timed correctly during these cycles. Clearly, the time in the early 1980’s to year 2000 was a strong growth cycle (secular bull market) for American companies, top dividend stocks, and also the stock exchanges generally. The last twelve years happen to be much more of an uneven and slow growth cycle that lots of people would say is a part of a bigger secular bear market. The verdict is still out on whether we are in the beginning of a bull market that will be good for top dividend stocks.

However, it should be stated that there have been good quality years for top dividend stocks during that twelve year period as well. For instance, from early 2003 to late 2007, top dividend stocks were inside a strong and steady recovery from the 2000-2002 collapse. And from March of 2009 until early 2010, the snap back recovery from the collapse of 2008 provided a strong recovery for many of the top dividend stocks.

Investing immediately after market collapses in high quality dividend stocks has been quite lucrative for investors. The first snap back is generally very good for the markets and the top dividend stocks. Then the market must digest and consolidate gains for several weeks or even months before moving up higher. Those consolidation phases are also good times to pick up top dividend stocks.

The very best strategy for investing in dividend stocks for your portfolio is to be consistent and steady with buys of the top dividend stocks, especially on market downturns, and also to always reinvest the dividends to buy more stock. This is how the top dividend stocks can produce very strong compound returns.

Momentum Rider is going to share with you a diversified dividend buy list that meets our strict criteria for the top dividend stocks. The portfolio is balanced across numerous industries and it has a strong multinational company bias.

Market Beating Top Dividend Stocks Portfolio:

Combinations of these top dividend stocks should do very well for anyone looking to make money from investing in the equities. Finally, go to our products section to look at numerous MR dividend subscription services and our top dividend stocks model portfolios.

More Top Agriculture Stocks and Apple Inc Selling

Top Agriculture Stocks #2 and Apple Inc. (AAPL)

This blog article will finish up our investor series on top agriculture stocks and will provide more analysis of the market selloff from earlier today.

This is a reprint from Sunday's newsletter:

"This week is still setting up for more selling after being very extended in the chart technicals. It may get an initial bounce tomorrow based on Greece passing the austerity measures but that may be it for the week." The market and Apple's stock price have started pulling back in a reversion to the mean move.

MR spent most of Sunday's newsletter detailing why the extended market was more than ready for a pullback this week and it has started. The 1350 level has been very strong resistance for 2 weeks and the S&P 500 failed yet again to hold that level after moving above it to 1356 earlier in the day. The pullback target support area is 1330 to 1325 near the 20 SMA. Strong markets, which this is, typically bounce off their 20 SMA's on the initial move down. Any selling below that level should hold 1300.

Strong markets need pullbacks to recharge and continue an uptrend. Because the VIX is still low, this first retracement should be shallow and probably less than 3% before a bounce up occurs. Most healthy pullbacks move in 3 waves. The first wave is a down move, followed by a countertrend or second wave up (bounce), and then a final third wave down.

The market's bulls are getting tired and even the "King of Tech", Apple Inc., finally succumbed to huge selling from a parabolic move up to $526. The candle pattern that AAPL created today is called a bearish engulfing pattern. It was very negative price action and could be considered a "blowoff" top and potential key reversal day.

If it was any stock other than AAPL, we would say it is almost a guaranteed high for an extended period of time but you just never know with AAPL. However, we still believe it could be forecasting more selling to come in the short term and potentially even longer. But do not short AAPL. If Apple Inc. announces a stock split or dividend in the near term then this stock will fly higher again. Just like the markets, AAPL moved up way too fast recently and needs to recharge its energy.

Because Apple is such a huge weighted percentage of the Nasdaq (over 17%), its price movement is critical for the markets. It is the key stock to watch for what big money institutions are doing and it serves as a good gauge on the markets' health because of that. Today's Apple Inc. selling is a potential harbinger of more market selling to come.

Another market index that we were watching closely today was the transports. Momentum Rider already wrote a blog on the huge recent drop in the Baltic Dry Index as a forecaster for rougher times in the future. Today, the Dow Jones Transport Index took a huge beating and broke well below its 20 SMA and almost touched its 50 SMA. Dow Theory proponents would take that as another warning of heavier selling to come.

Finally, Moody's warned today that it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions. It is another indication that the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading and needs more immediate attention before fear hits again.

Moody's cited more fragile funding conditions, increased regulatory burdens and a tougher economic environment for its potential downgrades. Moody's new warning follows its downgrades last Monday of six European nations including Italy, Spain and Portugal. It also warned it could strip France, Britain and Austria of their top-level AAA grade.

The only positive piece of good news from last night was that China has expressed a "willingness" to help out in the European debt crisis. That is a huge deal for Europe and a confidence backstop for investors but the details are lacking as usual. Rhetoric and real action from China are usually two different things so its weight was short lived.

The bottom line is that Momentum Rider remains cautiously bullish.  There have been dip buyers on every small pullback this year. So the 1350 resistance area is critical to break back above to keep this uptrend moving. The reaction to any more market pullback in the next few days or next week will be a good measure on whether the 2011 S&P 500 highs of 1370 will be tested in the first quarter or not.

Using the Power Stocks Table:
(1) Risk: Conservative (Cons); Moderate (Mod); Aggressive (Aggr); Speculative (Spec)
(2) Stop: Typically use a 3 to 4% closing stop below the entry price
(3) Trailing Stops: Use the 10 EMA (Swing) or 20 SMA (Short Term Trader) for protecting gains once above it; SMA = Daily Simple Moving Avg; EMA = Daily Exponential Moving Avg.

Value Stocks - Agriculture Stocks
Today's stock picks will be highlighting another beaten down commodity sector from 2011 but one that should rebound in 2012. There are many different ways to invest in the agricultural industry. There are stocks in food equipment, supply, biofuel, chemical, farm products, and fresh produce companies, just to name a few. Many of these stocks have formed strong bases and have had recent consolidation breakouts.
As we stated in Sunday's newsletter, agriculture is one of our favorite investment areas as emerging market middle classes expand and the world population continues to grow. Any pullbacks in this sector should definitely be taken advantage of by savvy investors. As promised, this is the second set of stocks we recommend but they carry a speculative risk rating so invest appropriately. The listed prices are factoring in a bit of a market pullback.
 
Top Agriculture Stocks (Speculative/Aggressive):

Investor Notes:


Check out the blog on "The King of Tech" for why Apple should be purchased on any pullback in the stock or market - $440 would be ideal (click here to read it). Also, read the last blog if you have not done so on overbought indicators.

Sunday's newsletter will focus on some attractive high-yield dividend funds to help ride out more market chop in 2012.

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

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Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get  access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Investor Membership”… get more info

_________________________________________________________

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Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C.  Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.

© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Technical Analysis | Overbought Markets | Top Agriculture Stocks

Technical Analysis Lesson - Top Agriculture Stocks

The Momentum Rider investor series continues as we take a look at the coming week's action and also more areas to look for in finding top value stocks. This week is going to be focused on value stocks  in the agriculture sector. Many of these stocks are working up out of long consolidations. The agriculture stocks were hit very hard in 2011 and should offer patient investors very good profits from these levels.

The agriculture stocks have good valuations and should see substantial moves up as the world economies recover and they can be viewed as both good trades and good investments. The middle class growth in emerging economies, especially in China and India, will keep the farm products and soft commodities climbing for years to come.

This week is still setting up for more selling after being very extended in the chart technicals. The markets may get an initial bounce tomorrow based on Greece passing the austerity measures but that may be it for the week.

In today’s newsletter, we wanted to show you some of the charts that demonstrate why the markets are so extended. The premise for a pullback is based on what is called a “reversion to the mean”. Whenever the statistics get too far away from the mean, the markets will work their way back towards the mean.

In this case, the markets are in a very overbought state based on many of the technical indicators we look at. In order to work the markets back to the mean, they require a pullback or selling to get closer to the mean of normal price action. As we show below, the market is still well above its 20 SMA. In addition, the oscillator indicators are all pegged up near their overbought regions. The chart demonstrates the Wilder’s RSI, Stochastics, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The RSI is very close to 70, the full Stochastic is well over 80 at a 91 reading, and the Ultimate Oscillator at a 73 reading above the 70 benchmark.

Markets can stay overbought for an extended period of time so it is dangerous to only use the overbought readings of oscillators. For example, these 3 oscillators have been overbought for most of 2012 and the last 20 days. That is why it is important to look at a few other charts and to monitor key resistance levels where pullbacks occur.

So two other important charts that we monitor are the McClellan Summation Index and the percent of stocks above the 40 SMA. These are charts that some big institutions look at so you should be aware of them. Because their big buy and sell decisions are affected by charts like these, it is educational to review them. It is easy to look back at important past turning points in the market to see how well an understanding of these charts would have dramatically helped trader and investor decisions.

Finally, we will show you the volatility index chart that is supporting an impending pullback. The volatility of the market has been going down for months and this last week it bounced off of strong support near the 16 area. And, on Friday, it brokeout from a four month downtrend line. (see chart below).

At this point, Greece’s passing of their austerity agreement is only a temporary patch. The market’s bulls are getting tired and even the “King of Tech”, Apple Inc, is extended in its great start to 2012 (see our blog on Apple posted earlier today).

The bottom line is that Momentum Rider remains cautiously bullish after this expected pullback is complete. There have been dip buyers on very small pullbacks this year. So the 20 SMA near 1320 is a likely target this week for a bounce. The reaction to a market pullback will be a good gauge on whether the 2011 S&P 500 highs of 1370 will be tested in the first quarter or not.

Using the Power Stocks Table:
(1) Risk: Conservative (Cons); Moderate (Mod); Aggressive (Aggr); Speculative (Spec)
(2) Stop: Typically use a 3 to 4% closing stop below the entry price
(3) Trailing Stops: Use the 10 EMA (Swing) or 20 SMA (Short Term Trader) for protecting gains once above it; SMA = Daily Simple Moving Avg; EMA = Daily Exponential Moving Avg.

Value Stocks - Agriculture Stocks
Today’s stock picks will be highlighting another beaten down commodity sector from 2011 but one that should rebound in 2012. There are many different ways to invest in the agricultural industry. There are stocks in food equipment, supply, biofuel, chemical, farm products, and fresh produce companies, just to name a few. Many of these stocks have formed strong bases and have had recent consolidation breakouts.

Agriculture stocks is one of our favorite investment areas as emerging market middle classes expand and the world population continues to grow. Any pullbacks like this should definitely be taken advantage of by savvy investors. The first set of stocks today will be the top income and larger cap stocks. Our next newsletter will provide some of the ETFs and more speculative agriculture stock plays. The prices are factoring in a bit of a market pullback.

Top Agriculture Stocks:

Investor Notes:
Check out the blog on “King of the Tech” for why Apple should be purchased on any pullback in the stock or market. (click here to read it)

The issue of Italy’s very big debt payment in March is going get a bigger focus now that the Greece payment is temporarily off the table. But Greece unrest will continue for years the way this is going.

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Advertisement:
Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get  access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Investor Membership”… get more info

_________________________________________________________

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on Facebook 

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C.  Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.

© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Long Live the King of Tech - Apple Inc. (AAPL)

The King of Technology - Apple Inc. (AAPL)

This week’s investor highlight blog is on Apple Inc. Momentum Rider is dubbing Apple Inc. the “King of Tech”. It has been one of the most successful resurrections of a broken stock and company in history. Steve Jobs came back to turn his former company around in a transformation that was miraculous and extremely profitable for Apple to say the least.

Steve Jobs helped Apple set earnings' records almost every quarter in the past few years. And even under Tim Cook as the new CEO, Apple has continued to thrive. Cook has been able to avoid major supply chain issues and has taken the stock from its recent low of $370 in November of 2011 to its current price of $493. And, it will certainly bust $500 this coming week.

Apple’s monster first quarter earnings report was the most profitable quarter ever reported by a technology company and the second most profitable quarter ever reported by a U.S. firm. The market capitalization is now over $440 billion and Apple is the most valuable company in the world. Apple has over $100 billion in cash right now.

At the end of 2011, Apple revealed plans to spend over $8 billion in capital spending just in 2012. Tim Cook is betting that fiscal 2012 sales will grow by $52 billion or close to 48%. That is an amazing growth rate for such a large and established company.

Apple’s mobile devices of the iPad, iPhone, and iPod Touch are still its growth engines. Their current dominance has been amazing to watch as it has unfolded over the past few years. Their superior designs and cutting edge technology have kept them ahead of everybody. It doesn’t mean that competitors won’t try to take them down, because they will. There will be new rival tablets and mobile phones with powerful core quad processors from Nvidia Corp and others that will hit the market in the next few months. And later in the year new chips will be powered by a newer version of Microsoft’s Windows software that will provide a competitive obstacle.

But Apple is still up to the challenge as they try to stay ahead with new innovations and improved functionality with every new release. And their speed to new releases is much better than it used to be in the old Apple computer days. That will be important to remain the dominant player in this very difficult and fast growing wireless mobile and multimedia consumer arena. Apple is looking forward to big improvements in their display technology this year and it is spending lots of money to get there.

In fact, Apple will probably leverage that same technology to enter into the building of television sets in 2012. Steve Jobs was reportedly finalizing a much simpler user interface for televisions that may give them an edge into this very large $100 billion television industry. There were reports that the new TVs will work with Siri-style voice commands. Just as recently as today, there is speculation that the new prototype Apple TV is already in the hands of TV makers’ hands. Discussions are going on with Rogers Communications and Bell Canada Enterprises to name just a few and it could be ready as early as 2013.

There is no question that Apple’s domination of the consumer interface for multimedia content and its move into controlling the actual content will continue to make Apple, Inc. the “King of Tech” for many years to come. The dominance it has created in streaming digital music (iTunes) could potentially happen with streaming video content as well with the right content business relationships. The new “cloud based TV service” could be launched in 2012 according to inside sources.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is truly the “King of Tech” with a reign that could last a decade or more. The following are strong reasons that Momentum Rider believes it is NOT TOO LATE FOR INVESTORS to buy Apple, Inc. stock.

1)      The recent earnings report was a breakaway gap that should have much higher to move up from a technical standpoint.

2)      The valuation of Apple stock based on future earnings’ growth is still very reasonable with a PE of less than 10. That is very cheap compared to the typical PE of 15 for the market average, much less a high growth company.

3)      Apple will probably use the $100 billion in cash to buy back stock and to finally start issuing a dividend in 2012. The issuing of a dividend will be a HUGE boost to the stock’s price as it increases the number of major institutions and fund types that can own the stock. More fund buying means higher prices.

4)      Apple will probably do a split this year which will not only open the stock up to more investors, but most growth stocks see accelerated appreciation with splits. Getting in before a split announcement is advisable as the announcement itself generates a price pop.

5)      Apple’s retail stores are the most lucrative stores per square foot in the world and they continue to open up more of their stores worldwide. Their recent entrance into China is a major step in what should provide explosive growth. The more stores that go up, the more profitable they will be as the mobile industry is still in the early stages of worldwide usage and innovation. This is especially true in the emerging market countries where they will get a critical early lead on competitors.

6)      Apple’s entrance into the television and video content world could be another big game changer for Apple. While the television business itself is a low margin market, it facilitates the very lucrative video content business and it opens up their customer base even more. It will increase the whole multimedia consumer business to Apple with their full package offering and superior brand recognition. It is staggering to think of the possibilities for new revenue with the video content business. They could enter into the advertising business as well.

7)      The mobile phone and streaming multimedia video businesses are still in their infancy. Apple is the leader in the mobile phone and tablet business and they will probably become the leader in the specialty TV and video content business. If Apple plays their cards right in 2012 and 2013, they will continue to be the “King of Tech”, even without Steve Jobs at the helm.




Our recommendation is to buy Apple stock whenever it has a pullback in 2012. Their best years are still ahead of them and they have a good valuation even at $500. We say long live the “King of Tech”.
 

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Advertisement:

Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get  access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Investor Membership”… get more info

_________________________________________________________

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on Facebook 

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C.  Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.

© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Bear Market Warning

Baltic Dry Index Forecasting a Market Pullback

The last three days were pause days that amounted to very little movement. The S&P 500 moved up just 5 points to the 1350 area and the DJIA moved up only 22 points. It is harder to get a bullish catalyst after moving up so far and so fast.

We are still waiting to see what happens during a pullback on volume and how far the markets fall. The first S&P 500 support is the 10 SMA at 1333 and then the 20 SMA at about 1318. Strong bull markets usually hold the 10 SMA or the 20 SMA on a retracement and that is what we expect. There have been lots of put options purchased for protection with the low VIX. That should help support the markets on any selling momentum and it will minimize the damage. The next stop if they don't hold is near the 1305 to 1300 level.
At this point, unless Greece cannot get their agreement or something happens with Iran, the pullback is probably going to be limited to the 2 to 4% range initially.

However, the earnings have not been very good in terms of growth. In fact, if you pull out Apple's earnings in 2011 from the S&P 500, the growth was less than 3%. And the earnings growth slid from over 18% in Q3 2011 to under 6% in Q4 2011. The earnings growth is slowing despite many of the earnings beats this season. So even with the better "reported" employment numbers, the better manufacturing data, and improving consumer confidence, the earnings growth is ultimately what drives the markets. After this earnings season, the markets are potentially set up for a much bigger pullback (see bearish indicator watch below).

So far Apple Inc (AAPL) has served as a good "canary in the coal mine" for the markets and for the big money players. When AAPL starts pulling back, the markets will probably follow along with it.

Bearish Indicator Watch: MR has previously detailed numerous leading indicators and metrics that we watch every week to help forecast future moves. But one we didn't talk about recently is called the Baltic Dry Index. This is a number issued by London that tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargos. 

The index provides a measure of price for moving dry raw materials by sea - coal, iron ore, grain, etc. Just recently, as shown below, it hit a 25 year low. In January of this year, it had its worst decline since it began recording prices back in 1985. The fast and steep drop from mid October 2011 till now is astounding.

As an example, the large freighters have been forced to charge less than half of the price they did just 6 weeks ago. The situation is so bad that the rates have fallen over 60% in the last 2 months and they are now below operating costs in some cases.

This Baltic Dry Index has been a solid forecasting indicator for predicting slowing economies and even for recessions. For example, it fell sharply in early 2008 and we all know what happened the rest of that year. Now MR is not predicting a repeat of 2008 by any means.

But this indicator certainly is suggesting that Europe and the world economies may be slowing down faster than many people are currently factoring into the stock markets. While this index is falling like a rock, the markets are in a steep climb. This divergence probably means that falling earnings growth and a European recession could ripple through to cause a much bigger market pullback (6%+) in the second or third quarters. This index is worth watching.

There will be no power picks tonight based on the unsigned Greece agreement and the extended market. We will reassess recommendations this weekend based on the next few day's market action.

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Advertisement:
Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get  access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Investor Membership”… get more info

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Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C.  Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.

© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Top Value Stocks | High-Yield Dividend Stocks

Top Value Stocks - High-Yield Dividends

The Momentum Rider investor series continues as we take a look at the coming week's action and also more areas to look for to find top value stocks. This week is going to be focused on value stocks with 200 SMA breakouts that have high-yields. Long consolidation breakouts can be very good and safe trades as the price support is well established. In this case the 200 SMA serves as very strong support. Once the momentum moves out of the base to the upside, any remaining shorts will need to cover and the move can be fast and very powerful. These stocks have good valuations and should see substantial moves up as the world economies recover and they can be viewed as both good trades and good investments. The high dividend yields give these stocks both capital appreciation and income.

Friday of last week was a big boost for confidence in the US markets. It helped continue the rally for the S&P 500 to test the 2011 highs near 1370 and the COMP is testing 5 year highs and the high for 2011. The DJIA also is testing its 2011 high. Typically, the first time back up to test previous highs fails initially and that will probably happen with the DJIA this week.

However, it was another positive week as institutions, money managers, and fund managers continue to buy and chase this "surprise" strong performance. This move up without a decent size pullback has caught many hedge funds off guard and they continue to accumulate late in the rally to catch up.

The start of the year has been dominated by more optimism in Europe coupled with bullish news out of the US and China in many different areas. In addition, Apple's very strong earnings and a bounce from semiconductors have given technology the strongest start to a year in some time. That is important when trying to forge a bullish US market trend in the face of a struggling Europe.

We have previously detailed the many improvements that have occurred since the Europe financial crisis was averted late last year by the world central banks. And just this weekend, China gave even more of a backstop potential for Europe when they indicated they are willing to help with the ESM (European Stability Mechanism). China has very deep pockets and their support will be critical to get past the big Italian payment due in March. It could also be important in helping with Portugal's debt problems that have recently spiked.

Greece is still pushing their agreement out again to this week and the markets are way overdue for a 3 to 4% pullback. But that is a healthy and normal correction and expected. With all of the money on the sidelines for both individual investors and businesses, it leaves plenty of more room on the upside in 2012. Our initial target of 1360 to 1370 for the first quarter may be eclipsed at the rate the markets are moving and 1400 can't be completely ruled out.

Expect some consolidation and selling this week but the bulls are still in charge for now. The 1300 area is strong support on a pullback and 1360 is the upside target if the market keeps moving up this week.

Using the Power Stocks Table:
(1) Risk: Conservative (Cons); Moderate (Mod); Aggressive (Aggr); Speculative (Spec)
(2) Stop: Typically use a 3 to 4% closing stop below the entry price
(3) Trailing Stops: Use the 10 EMA (Swing) or 20 SMA (Short Term Trader) for protecting gains once above it; SMA = Daily Simple Moving Avg; EMA = Daily Exponential Moving Avg.

Value Stocks - Consolidation Breakouts Above the 200 SMA
Today's stock picks will be highlighting more value stocks that are breaking out of consolidation and sideways moves just above their 200 SMA. This is a really good place to enter a trade or an investment with a strong support right beneath the entry. This week's picks will be a mixture of sectors but mostly high-yield dividend stocks.

Value Stocks with High-Yield Dividends:




Investor Notes:
We will be writing a blog this week on Apple so keep an eye out for it. Remember to check out our recent blogs on precious metal miners and long term treasuries if you haven't read them yet.

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

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Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get  access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Investor Membership”… get more info

_________________________________________________________

Follow us on Twitter

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Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C.  Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.
© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Top Junior Gold and Silver Stocks

Top Gold Stocks and Silver Stocks - Junior Miners

Silver and gold prices and gold stocks and silver stocks are ready for a new uptrend. The gold and silver prices both broke out of their downtrends of 5 months last week. The recent Fed announcement to keep rates low through 2014 was viewed as bullish news for precious metals. This news created a technical breakout that could gain more momentum in the next few months and the rest of 2012. In addition, the gold stocks and silver stocks also saw big price and volume days on the Fed news. This article will look at reasons for more upside pressure for both traders and investors.

This blog finishes up some very compelling reasons to own gold and silver. It also takes a look at owning some of the junior mining stocks in gold and silver. Finally, we end the blog with our top junior mining stocks and the top speculative gold and silver mining stocks. Many could see huge gains in the coming months and years but they will see times of very big swings so buyer beware on the timing.

Gold Technical Breakout From Downtrend:



Silver Technical Breakout From Downtrend:



Precious metals for numerous reasons will have upward price pressure for the next few years and beyond. This report focuses more on silver for getting the larger return of the two metals but gold will see strong appreciation as well. MR would expect gold to see at least a 50% increase and to possibly exceed $3,000/oz in the next 5 to 10 years. We believe silver may even see a double from the current levels. Specifically, MR expects silver to exceed $60/oz over the 3 to 5 years and $100/oz in the next 7 to 10 years. The following reasons explain the upward pressures pushing both metals, but especially silver, much higher in the future. This is a continuation of a previous blog - Top Stocks To Buy Now | Gold Stocks | Silver Stocks.

Reason #6: Individual investors and numerous countries are accumulating and stockpiling gold and silver.

Gold is a safe haven in times of wars and political and economic uncertainty. This is the world we live in. The recent times of economic uncertainty in 2010 have proven that very point as gold and silver have clearly outperformed other asset classes. Gold has been outperforming for the last 10 years. And, history has shown this kind of result many times. Because of the economic uncertainty and even some creeping doubts on the US dollar as a reserve currency, countries have recently been increasing their gold reserves and stockpiles by large amounts (China, India, and Russia to name just a few). For example, in October 2009, India purchased 200 tons of IMF gold. This was the single largest purchase of gold by a central bank in the past 30 years.

And the real wild card could be individual investors in China. In the past, the Chinese government forbade ownership of all precious metals. But now, the ban has been lifted. In fact, China is offering silver and gold bars for investment. The state-run China Central Television (CCTV) is running a campaign encouraging the population to invest in gold and silver. That means there are over a billion potential new silver and gold investors ready to stockpile their own reserves. This is especially significant when you consider the average savings rate in China is 30 to 40%. This increased demand could significantly affect the supply.

Reason #7: The fast growth of the emerging market middle classes and their huge demand for commodities to support infrastructure growth will put enormous upwards pressure on commodity prices across the board, including gold and silver.

MR has previously written about the growing middle classes in the emerging market countries like China and India. The strong growth and large population numbers are putting huge demand pressure on all commodities for transport, jewelry, infrastructure for businesses and residences, agriculture commodity related products, etc. This increasing and high demand worldwide for commodities in general will push gold and silver prices up along for the ride.

Reason #8: Decades of very low gold and silver prices stalled and postponed production and exploration that ultimately has significantly lowered their supply sources.

Gold production peaked in 2001 and has been falling since then. Lower supply will be swamped by increasing demand for gold and silver going forward. New gold and silver locations are limited and production is still not what it used to be. Furthermore, the relative cost of finding new precious metals through exploration is extremely high in today’s economy.

Reason #9: The emergence of the gold and silver ETFs, GLD in particular, has changed the supply curve of gold in the world.

GLD is backed by real gold bullion that must be purchased. It is a proxy for real gold. Therefore, momentum in the GLD ETF as an investment actually lowers supply which will continue to put upward pressure on the price. This upward price movement will increase the momentum to the upside which will reduce supply again. It is setup for a parabolic move at some point and silver will be in the same position to benefit.

The final question is how to best invest in silver and gold. There are several ways to do it. Of course investing in silver collector coins is one way. Other ways that are a bit easier to do involve some select Exchange Traded Funds or individual stocks.

The first chart is our top rated junior miner stock list and the second list includes the top speculative gold and silver mining stocks.

Best Junior Mining Gold Stocks and Silver Stocks:

Best Speculative Gold Stocks and Silver Stocks:

Other ways to play this uptrend move in the gold and silver prices is with ETFs that track the real asset prices. Here are the top ETFs for investing in the underlying prices and avoiding the individual risk of mining companies. Remember, mining companies can be shut down with flooding, strikes, cave-ins, etc. They carry more risk than the ETF’s following the asset price. Also, an ETF basket of Gold Miners minimizes the individual company risk as well (see GDX).

Gold ETFs: GLD, IAU, SGOL, DGP (2X), UGL (2X); Silver ETFs: SLV, SIVR, AGQ (2X)

Gold Miner ETFs: GDX, GGGG, GLDX, PSAU, GDXJ (Jr. Miners); Silver Miner ETF: SIL

Gold and Silver Price Mix ETF: DBP

Precious Metal Basket (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium) ETF: GLTR

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Advertisement:
Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get  access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR "Gold Investor Membership"... get more info

_________________________________________________________

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on Facebook 

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C.  Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.
© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.

Investing in Base Pattern Breakouts | Value Stocks in 2012

Top Value Stocks - Base Pattern Breakouts

The Momentum Rider investor series continues as we take a look at the coming week's action and also more areas to look for to find top value stocks. This week is going to be focused on value stocks with basing pattern breakouts. Long consolidation breakouts can be very good and safe trades as the price support is well established. Once the momentum moves out of the base to the upside, any remaining shorts will need to cover and the move can be fast and very powerful. These stocks have good valuations and should see substantial moves up as the world economies recover and they can be viewed as both good trades and good investments.

There were a number of positive reports today that helped the markets recover from a several day slide. The S&P 500 did touch our first support of 1300 on Monday as we discussed in Sunday's newsletter and then bounced with dip buyers. Today reached a high of 1330 before retracing at the end of the day to finish at 1324. It was a day that was filled with better than expected manufacturing data out of Germany, India, U.S., and China. That was important to keep confidence up after a very good January.

It looks like China is still headed for a softer landing than many have predicted which is critical for commodities and the rest of the markets. The day also saw more private sector job creation, decent home sales, good earnings from Whirlpool, and a Facebook IPO announcement. All of this added up to more buying and the continued "melt up" higher. I use "melt up" versus a strong move because the volume is extremely light and most of the investment community is still very guarded.

The trend is still up and staying above the 20 SMA and the DJIA is close to its 2011 highs. Until the trend breaks below the 20 SMA, it is best to stay long. The last 2 weeks have been primarily a consolidation as the S&P 500 was at 1314 on January 19. The overbought indicators have backed off some but are still stretched.

My biggest concern is that the bearish rising wedge in the S&P 500 is still intact. It needs to be carefully watched at these elevated price levels and after such a strong move up without a meaningful pullback. At this point, everyone seems to believe Greece will get a finalized agreement because it is priced into the market.

Using the Power Stocks Table:
(1) Risk: Conservative (Cons); Moderate (Mod); Aggressive (Aggr); Speculative (Spec)
(2) Stop: Typically use a 3 to 4% closing stop below the entry price
(3) Trailing Stops: Use the 10 EMA (Swing) or 20 SMA (Short Term Trader) for protecting gains once above it; SMA = Daily Simple Moving Avg; EMA = Daily Exponential Moving Avg.

Value Stocks to Buy for 2012 - Base Breakouts
Today's stock picks will be value stocks with technical base breakouts. These are typically fairly safe long entries once they get some momentum up out of a long consolidation. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the up move will be.

Top Base Pattern Breakouts - Value  Stocks:

Investor Notes:
Investors should look at our recently posted blogs on top value stocks in energy and precious metal mining stocks. Both areas look ready to rebound after going sideways or finishing up long downtrends. Many of the precious metal mining stocks had big reversal moves recently. The top gold and silver stocks and ETFs were in a blog on our website. (Click here to read it).

Stay tuned for some blogs to come on China's market and their top stocks. Also, look for a very important blog post on US Treasuries this week. A very safe investment will be revealed and it is not what you think.

Natural Gas prices came back down to retest the previous bottom for what should be a double bottom basing pattern. CHK has very strong support at $20.00 going all the way back to 2010 and it should hold that level.

Check out our newest FREE promotional offer called the MR Market Crusher Pack for 2012 (click link). It includes 5 very valuable investor products worth $600 to get you started with a bang in 2012 for your retirement account.

Another exciting pack for our subscribers and new customers is our MR Power Income Pack for 2012 (click link). It has 5 high income and retirement products worth $400 with some unbelievable dividend stock picks with both value and good growth.

To find out more about why our subscription services continue to crush the market since we started in 2004, go to www.momentumrider.com.

Advertisement:

Investors can take advantage of our best investor services in our premium Gold Investor Membership. Get  access to the top Momentum Rider investor portfolios, Special Reports, and stock picks by trying it out risk free for a few months. Get instant access now to the MR “Gold Investor Membership”… get more info

_________________________________________________________

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on Facebook 

Good luck in your trading and investing,

Keith Hugenberg

CEO Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC

________________________________________________________________

This BLOG POST is brought to you by the publishers at Jalexa Trading Consultants, L.L.C.  Nothing in this post should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any investments recommended in this blog post or through any of its advertisements should be made only after consulting with your investment professionals and only after reviewing the financial statements of the company or investment.
© 2012 Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the internet), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Jalexa Trading Consultants, LLC.